Thursday, November 7, 2013

Back in the Day of Fibo 61 Retracement, Leader Indices confirming a top

Back in the day, the market was content with a 61 Fibonacci Retracement.

Starting around 2009, the market started insisting on 78 Fibo's. Now seeing more 100% Fibos to blast the stop of anyone who got in on a trend change.

The leader indices, Nasdaq and Russell (or maybe we should say the exuberant indicator indices) both show clear overthrows of the channel out of the 2008/2009 bottoms.  

Confirmation of an at least near term trend change.    Expect a "shakeout" drop of AT LEAST 8% prior to Santa Rally.


  1. daily bear engulfing candle in the books, and a weekly one in ES, too, if close below 1753 I think tomorrow.wkly bear engulfing candle historically portends a big move down. I do not see how it climbs out of this hole. Might well even see 1760 but sucker rally then to 1675 IMO

  2. Yep, thanks for the candle headsup. around 1700 I will reassess my Dec puts.


Insightful and Useful Comment!