Sunday, November 29, 2009

29 Day Cycles and What I Intend on Doing

This cycle has had uncanny predictive power.  All things do come to an end, though, but until they do, I think it silly to pre-guess that this cycle has come to an end.

My guess is that the PPT has shot all of it's readily available bullets.  The Gov is not going to get GS to pump a few billion into the market without being able to provide that in at least as good a format as an interest free loan.  In other words, a phone call is not going to do it.  It will be a "show me the money" event. 

Our fearless leaders (sometimes I wish they has some fear) are probably scratching their head this weekend, wondering if this Dubai thing matters or not.  Those banks with significant exposure are likely to know it.  See XLF chart at end.

Anyhow, lets say we drop to 1040 in a day or two, as this chart suggests is, well, the most likely path.  Our leaders will be mustering support and a new source of money to pump the market with....and yes, they will win again....since we all know that all we need is confidence (j/k), and a nice rally towards Christmas to get the consumer back in the game.  After all, check out XRT, rally time!

That said, I will be ready to close out short side gains in the next day or two.  At the very least, hedge with long futures.  But really, with a quick drop, quick spike in Vix, put options are probably best closed out.

However, all that said, if the chart below does not "hold" then all these assumptions can be tossed, and then reassess the whole situation.  Until that point though, this looks like a good play to me.  That said...don't follow me, my expertise is in solar engineering, not lunar financial engineering.

Finally, AMBG has a site I don't visit often enough, but finally but the darn link on my desktop.   Springheel Jack follows AMBG several times a weeks and states that his market projections are really good.   His market projections match mine precisely in time and price SO HE MUST BE GOOD!  j/k matching my prediction could be a contra-indicator!  :-)
Original chart can be found at:


  1. That's one fantastic chart. I hadn't noticed the lunar connection here, it's a great observation.

    Thanks again, Steve.

  2. Very nice chart mate. I hope we get that far. :-)


Insightful and Useful Comment!