Thursday, November 26, 2009

Comments on Why Drop was Expected


  1. "act emotionally and quickly, to their detriment"

    Meaning they sell equities?
    Meaning they don't sell equities because they don't want to deal with it during the happy holiday season?

    Do you have a scenario that you're referring to?

  2. Yes, sell off equities, triggering further sell off.... "Fire!"

  3. I'll give you your props too. I saw your post last weekend, and said to myself: yeah sure black swans came come out of nowhere - how can you predict it - so I didn't get short. great call. I'll be stopping by more often - caught you from BPT.

  4. Anonymous, thanks for stopping in, and always appreciate any additional market insight that anyone can add.

  5. Hey Steveo,

    Thanks for stopping by my blog (The Tail Does Not Wag the Dog) and commenting, figured I'd return the favor.

    IMO the proper way to to play this is to fade it, I'm long looking for a 1-3 day rise starting Monday. Evil Speculator had a great post pointing out the PPT action Friday.

    The banksters absolutely positively cannot let this thing come apart like last year as they will lose all the marbles. While they will likely let the institutions sell their positions to J6P and subsequently bring the market down, we will not put in new lows until sometime after next year, after the market has 'corrected' and struggles to fail to put in new highs.

    I could be wrong, but they are now paying attention to what's going on, and will pull out every trick in the book to prevent a crash.

    This will ultimately only succeed in causing several big waves down (as opposed to another crash), but that's fine with me.

    I could be wrong, and if so will pay for it, but that's how I see it at the moment.

    Still about 1.5-2 years to play this game. Then we push the 'reset' button.




Insightful and Useful Comment!