Thursday, May 27, 2010

Continued bullish

HEADS UP, Monday is a Holiday in US Markets.  Last few years, three days weekends have seen lots of shenanigans.

Another thought on the Elliot Wave 5 waves.  By observation, not  recital of the "bible".   Lets say wave 1 starts up, then a number of participants jump on long after they see the move started, maybe they get filled at about half of the run up.   Then wave 2 comes, retracing 61% of wave 1.....if those wave one buyers set their stop tight, they get stopped out.   Then, after getting burned, they are afraid to jump on long again, and thus miss the wave 3.

Waves that retrace and that overlap make it very hard to trade small moves...i.e. to "get in" with a safe stop.   And with the high volatility of late...if you set your stop too loose, you have a high likelihood of waking up to a stupendous loss.   

This is the market we currently have....being gunned up and down, affected greatly by Forex, in particular the Euro.   But being gunned for the sake of stopping bears and bulls alike. 

Bullish factors -- Cup and Handle and Inverse Head and Shoulders.  The Bollinger bands are getting tight...that means energy is building for a big move.....direction is not known from the Bollinger, as with the McC Oscillator.
Euro has been pounded, its about ready for a rally and sure looks to be starting one.

BP might just get this well capped with mud, then with concrete.-- some news does move the market.   Some people state that news is fabricated to explain market moves, and in a great majority of cases that is true. 

But their are large structural events that get reported on also, and these do affect the pyschology of the participants, their emotions, and the fundamentals of our economy.

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Insightful and Useful Comment!