Thursday, May 6, 2010


Made some good short bets at 1155 on the ES (S&P 500 futures), based on a breakdown below a PRS 133 channel and a backtest of the same.   Shoulda Coulda made so much more.

I had predicted a limit down day to make most bears miss the move.   It probably shook out most active bulls, rarely does anyone have a stop much more than 7% or 10%.  

Fear Factor broke its lower channel line that it has been toying with.   In the past, when FF keeps going down even though market is bouncing, I have seen the market then follow along shortly.

FF going down means more FEAR.

EEM puts I have been holding for months, got a nice gain today, but still not even.  I have 35 strikes.   EEM was down more than US indices as previously postulated.

Exciting, but the smell of manipulation is strong.  There are trade records of who is doing what, someday they will be reviewed. 

Fear factor suggests a buy and hold short position is my strategy.   The second closeup up of fear factor shows that the day ended with fear at high levels, near the high of the day.   The Fear Factor Indicator shows lower numbers as actual fear increases.

The first image is at 1155, betting short.  The other two are after market close.

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