Sunday, May 9, 2010

Primary Wave 3 Down?

I am going to keep this short and just do a brain dump.

What I see going on leads me to a 90% belief that that next 5 years will be the most exciting 5 years on the last few centuries.

"Where is my cheese" is an expression from a job search book. When people lose a job they keep looking in the same place for the "cheese", they don't often open their eyes and look for new or other opportunities. They keep scrappin' around the same old place, looking for the cheese, and getting more upset and frustrated when the cheese doesn't come back. They get angry.

This is now Greece....the lead country in their denial that things need to change. You need productivity, efficiency, conservatism. But instead they want their cheese back. Instead of creating efficiency, they are going to shut the country down.

Entitlement thinking! It is all around us. Government worker wages in the US have gone up 30% to 50% while the rest of the economy wages have treaded water. I see this in my business. The postman has money to do projects, the military guy (bless their souls) has money to do projects, the cytologists (communication spies) has money to do projects. No one else does.

I went to the passport office last week. Intense security, bulletproof glass, shiny new offices. I had to call my Dad for some information and was talking on the phone. A twenty something employee tapped me on the shoulder and pointed to a cell phone use unless approved by the passport agency.

This was critical information I was gathering...however, as I was restricted from gathering my needed information, a TV blared cartoons. From the world of WTF? The issue is not about noise or disturbance, it is about power....and the government agency realize they are the ones with "income", power, and they go out of their way to get more.

Then, while I was talking on the phone in the hallway...noticed a bunch of passport workers leaving the office, meeting with friends, shooting the breeze. This was 10:30 AM, it wasn't lunchtime. They were shiny young people....not a care in the world, and they "had it made", they had a good paying job with a strong future, and a bunch of power. It was a P3 event in my mind.

Power bases (union, specialty workers, electricians, plumbers, other unions, telecom, etc.) will use their group power to try to grab more power and contracts at the detriment of everyone else. However, one thing is changing....private projects will not go forward...because people don't want to. In the boom times, people wanted to do and build all kinds of projects, there was unlimited optimism. People would pay whatever rate was needed to accomplish "their dreams". The recipients, although doing work, became "cheese laden", inefficient , and expecting the entitlement.

Now with the recent "crack hit" of maybe $13T the US had pumped into the economy, people have coasted through the "tough times", and NEVER LEARNED! We did not learn the lessons we ought to have learned, instead, we have been TAUGHT that what we were doing the last decade or two is OK, and we can keep up with all the stupid non-productive political and non-manufacturing related entitlement type thinking.

Yes this "crack hit" to the consumer zombie economy has made the issue worse. This ain't your Grandpappy's depression folks, this is a whole new level.

First Europe goes down, then the US and Asia.

Enough for today. I reached my time budget. But I do see it everywhere, a major change coming, being forced on us, and the mass global psychosis (per Daneric) which was a bull thought, will turn around the other way and shoot past the mean to the bearish side.

The piper needs to get paid, and even though he is wearing a clown suit and tooting a flute, this is all just a part of the deception...he is standing outside the door as the dancers wear down and the punchbowl runs dry.....

But for the near term, there could be several more months of "ramp"....giant oil leaks in the ocean, giant volcanoes, giant debts.....hell, can't we just print some more cheese to get confidence back?

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