In 90% of the cases, a peaking put/call ratio (equity put call /ratio that is), peaks while the market is trending down and just turning up.
Now we have had a 6% ramp in a week, and the put/call in hitting the upper trend line. Very odd indeed. Does this mean we rally hard from here? I hope so because I am going on vacation and would like to come back to a market 5% higher so I can short it.
A blogger "Raised by Wolves" (he is probably howling at the no moon), suggested some out of the money puts on EEM or similar, as a "hedge" to missing the big drop. I like that idea....Vix is down,
One theory is that as money is competitively devalued to kick the can down the road and to increase foreign trade balances, that a "hard asset" like the net present value of the future earnings potential of a company (the "fundamental value" of a company" goes up.
Funny thing is...stock prices don't follow fundamentals much, and if deflation sets in for say 3 to 4 years, some of those buying the dip may be quite surprised. And the value of a stock....nothing but a fleeting electron across your brokers computer processor....that is why they call them equities (to make it sound so solid).
It is a new moon, those freak people out more than full moons. Everyone is on their guard in the full moon, in the new moon, unknown danger lies ready to pounce.
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Insightful and Useful Comment!