Euro Triangle Trendline becomes important ARTIFACT
The second chart was created using TOS "On Demand Feature" which I knew about but just used today. You can go back to any point in time and trade it as if it was realtime, or 3X realtime, or you can jump to any time you wish.
I just started playing with the TOS software and it is pretty amazing. Very smart marketing, too, letting people download and use it, impressing them so they open an account at TOS. Clever bunnies.
Don't you think the Euro looks to have finished a 5-up? Maybe. Good for a nice pullback if so.
Btw, I just caught up to your earlier comment a couple posts back about bonds acting weird. They did set a peak high Friday but were remarkably subdued as stocks continued to melt. I think another short-term (at least) top is in. Which would fit nicely with your EWI/HBB idea. A face-ripping stock rally that dumps treasuries...another day at the office for the big boys.
Yeah, I can't believe I didn't use that feature until now. Makes it very easy to test "a trade system" if you are using ROC or RSI or whatever. Perfect your system while everything is calm.
Agreed Euro looks like obvious 5 up. I am not huge EW guy, but the 5 up hurts my view of things, since if it is countertrend, then it should be an ABC instead of a 12345 fractal. However, I also believe that "rule" of EW is just plain wrong, a countertrend move can be a 12345. So I will accept it for now as a countertrend 12345. But watching it like a hawk and ready to change bias.
Finally, on your last comment of different asset classes popping up and alternating....excellent thought, and of course that makes perfect sense from a "distribution" point of view. The HBB needs to drop some asset classes and rally others as part of this massive topping process. Then they can offload all their fiat crap to the local State Pension fund and such.... "we made the trade based on Technicals because it was rising"....like they even need an excuse to rip off their clients.
I've been dabbling in EW for about 12 years now, and I have to agree with you about that 5 wave thing. Now, the purist will say we're just counting incorrectly and what we're seeing as a 5 is actually a double zigzag whizbang triple somersault or something. But you can always count anything in a number of ways...one of the big knocks on EW, of course. Besides, if it looks like a 5 wave duck and quacks like a 5 wave duck--well, you know.
That said, one guy I follow is Eric Hadik, he's a subscription analyst who uses a lot of cycles in his work. Always interesting. For quite a while, he's been calling for an overall rally in the dollar into late this year.
I know you're into the moon phases, eclipses, etc., so you probably know Merriman's work. I think that guy is fascinating. I spent about 3 hours yesterday taking in his 2010 second half presentation and if he's right, the next four weeks are going to be hellzapoppin'. Big moves, some really wild, across a lot of markets.
I just started playing with the TOS software and it is pretty amazing. Very smart marketing, too, letting people download and use it, impressing them so they open an account at TOS. Clever bunnies.
ReplyDeleteDon't you think the Euro looks to have finished a 5-up? Maybe. Good for a nice pullback if so.
Btw, I just caught up to your earlier comment a couple posts back about bonds acting weird. They did set a peak high Friday but were remarkably subdued as stocks continued to melt. I think another short-term (at least) top is in. Which would fit nicely with your EWI/HBB idea. A face-ripping stock rally that dumps treasuries...another day at the office for the big boys.
Yeah, I can't believe I didn't use that feature until now. Makes it very easy to test "a trade system" if you are using ROC or RSI or whatever. Perfect your system while everything is calm.
ReplyDeleteAgreed Euro looks like obvious 5 up. I am not huge EW guy, but the 5 up hurts my view of things, since if it is countertrend, then it should be an ABC instead of a 12345 fractal. However, I also believe that "rule" of EW is just plain wrong, a countertrend move can be a 12345. So I will accept it for now as a countertrend 12345. But watching it like a hawk and ready to change bias.
Finally, on your last comment of different asset classes popping up and alternating....excellent thought, and of course that makes perfect sense from a "distribution" point of view. The HBB needs to drop some asset classes and rally others as part of this massive topping process. Then they can offload all their fiat crap to the local State Pension fund and such.... "we made the trade based on Technicals because it was rising"....like they even need an excuse to rip off their clients.
I've been dabbling in EW for about 12 years now, and I have to agree with you about that 5 wave thing. Now, the purist will say we're just counting incorrectly and what we're seeing as a 5 is actually a double zigzag whizbang triple somersault or something. But you can always count anything in a number of ways...one of the big knocks on EW, of course. Besides, if it looks like a 5 wave duck and quacks like a 5 wave duck--well, you know.
ReplyDeleteThat said, one guy I follow is Eric Hadik, he's a subscription analyst who uses a lot of cycles in his work. Always interesting. For quite a while, he's been calling for an overall rally in the dollar into late this year.
I know you're into the moon phases, eclipses, etc., so you probably know Merriman's work. I think that guy is fascinating. I spent about 3 hours yesterday taking in his 2010 second half presentation and if he's right, the next four weeks are going to be hellzapoppin'. Big moves, some really wild, across a lot of markets.
Guess we'll know soon enough.