Friday, October 15, 2010

The market is getting weird, way weird!!!!

All my custom indicators and ratio charts say that we are in for a good turn down.   However, POMO and irrational exuberance may have a different say.

Check out this "Doji Fest" on the ES.   Never seen 8 Doji candles in sequence.

Tomorrow is expiry.   I am making myself a promise right now.   No trading tomorrow.  I may limit out or stop out of things, but no trading. 

Working in the field tomorrow, photovoltaic going in.   See y'all on Sunday,

In the meantime, please chime in with 1 chart per visitor, I dare you, use Jing.


  1. 60min spy macd (2nd under price) tells the tale.
    and you know, the daily is looking pretty damn overextended, too. this could be a pretty good dip.

  2. Hey dark, just I start reading the web and feeling like...yeah...this thing could run up all year....

    Don't fight the great evil bald one....until it is time....

  3. I think the official QEII announcement is going to be a disappointment. This would provide a deflationary impulse. Should take gold down to $1264 and stocks... Somewhere deep South of here.

    After that, I expect physical gold to moonshot, which IMO is the only way to play this market. Tired of trying to second guess the gov't...

  4. Re: gold being the only play - Because any gains you make in the market, long or short, will have to exceed dollar debasement, along with the risk of a potential 'banking holiday' dollar devaluation 'event'..

    This market is for lunch money only, the rest of your wealth needs to be in some form that is within sight, on your property, in a community you are comfortable with, and you also want a plan 'B' just in case... JMHOP.

  5. Great comment, and good to just get back to basics. We too easily get caught up in the issue of the moment.

    The fundamentals are horrific, and eventually the markets will revert to reality, or most likely--overshoot reality to the downside.

  6. Left this on Harvey Organ's blog:

    I believe that QEII will either be a disappointment, or a "sell the news" event... Or both.

    This will result in a large deflationary impulse, which will drive gold down to $1264.00, giving JPM et. al. a chance to cover at least some of their PM shorts.

    This impulse will likely hit commodities much harder, and may crush equities.

    After that, I expect Stocks & bonds will go sideways and/or up, but will lose furiously in real money terms. Commodities will do better, oil in particular.

    All paper claims to assets will be in question, many will not be honored. You will likely retain what you can physically defend.

    PMs however will moonshot, with the premium for physical becoming wider and wider until it is unavailable for purchase with paper.

    Eventually gold will be preferred over silver.

    "Gold is money, and nothing else."
    -JP Morgan

    There's a few other things to do once gold hits that target:

    Get any cash you don't want devalued out of the banks and into your hand. When the 'holiday' hits, you will have that time to spend it at the higher value.

    Make sure you are prepped in other ways.

    If you need medicine to live, a 2-3 month supply is a minimum.

    Tools, plastic, bleach and other emergency supplies. Make a SHTF list.


    Make sure you have a deep pantry, especially regarding imported things.

    Stock plenty of popcorn to enjoy the show. I myself have a copy of Final Fantasy VII that I have been waiting to play, assuming I have 'down time'. ; )

    And in all seriousness, don't fuck around. There isn't much time. This could go down over Christmas/New Years (they need 6-11 days to devalue the currency).

  7. Newman's or Reddenbacher? I actually bought a jar of generic corn kernels that work great the old fashioned a pot, on the stove, no microwave involved.

    It's definitely time to get back to basics, fully agree!


Insightful and Useful Comment!