Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Complete Frustration -- Ready to Throw in the Towel, Except Ready to throw Euro Under the Bus

In response to a comment by Gold Gerb I wrote

I know, I was surprised to see that comment.   However, trading the indices has just been terrible, shit I closed out a trade last week with $120 profit when "before" HAL 20000 was turned on I had many many $1000 days, and even a few $5000 days in the index futures.   $120 f'n bucks and closed out because of scared of losing it.   Really it just ain't worth it.    If you can trade all day, and follow the best setups from Breakpoint Trades and other cup and handles and such...I think you can bank coin, but I don't have the time to monitor those, especially the thin stocks that also move the best and turn on you like a viper.    Now that I threw in the towel.....that must be a top!

Trying a new indicator, Simple Moving Average Envelope, no opinion yet.   And Fear Factor just keep pushing the Bollinger higher....that is what a Santa rally looks like.   i will say it again, in these markets you need to be either super smart or allow yourself to be dumb.    The smart get gamed.

The Euro has seen big retraces, over 61 Fibo, Buy and hold doesn't work (or sell and hold is really what I mean), nor does tilting at windmills. This PRS channel is pretty good, although wide--if we get a 5 month walk down, it will probably stay in that channel.


  1. Hi Steveo, heres an interesting analysis from Johingu at uidezine, sees IT top forming aroung 1300 max somewhere in january

    Ive been finding mostly doom on charts for the past two months and feel really spupid but humble in front of everyone whos had the wit to just buy in and relax. Ignorance is bliss and overthinking is bad. Regarding if we are starting to top out, yes i think so but taking a trade against the trend as strong as this (on the surcface) is a harakiri. Do any commentators here have thoughs of whats happened and whats 2011 going to be like - thanks.

  2. Yeah, I bet there's quite a few bulls with stop limit orders in...

    Trouble with those is that if your limit gets punched pass, your order doesn't execute... Smart longs will have stop loss orders in and take whatever the market gives them (which could be interesting if we get another flash crash LOL).

    Question is, do they let it drift up over 1300 to punish the bears, or take it out before then to trap the longs?

    At this point I would think there's more money in trapping the longs, but who can say.

  3. Steve, the only thing wrong with SMA Envelopes is that they move on you. You can have a price blast out of the envelope today and when you look back in a few days, it is still comfortably within the envelope since the moving average is still an average of past prices. (Based on my bitter experience)

  4. Thanks for the experience "lessons learned"

    I haven't used it for any trade decision yet. I have visually compared it to the Bollinger bands, and crossovers of the Bollinger band, only spent 5 minutes on that, but it looked promising as a signal. Will advise if I ever get a chance to advance that theory.


Insightful and Useful Comment!