I am taking a vote of my (10) "indicators", here they are: The 3.26 is moderately bearish. 5 would be neutral. However, many of the indicators are "perched" on a line, so saying that the market is at a critical juncture is not overblown. It could move big in any direction.
The question isn't whether QE3, 4, 5 will happen, but how low the SP has to get before they do.
ReplyDeleteI think a 50% decline should about do it.
I really don't see how political reality will allow them to do anything, at least above the table. If they operate like the PPT has since Reagan's admin, maybe they can get away with some shenanigans.
ReplyDeleteThough if we get low enought, as dnarby says, the political pressure may be to do something, and today's odious political choice could be tomorrow's no-brainer.
I think we might have to do better than 50%, though. Of course, by then it's too late, anyway, but that's when politicians usually act....after the cow is already out of the barn.
Imagine the government pension crisis after another 50% decline in the markets.
ReplyDeleteI think the more the government spends money it doesn't have on programs that don't work, the longer the crisis will be prolonged.
I tend to agree, in the long term, the USD is doomed, as if all fiat. I think they could pull a stick save in middle July, Fear Factor Fractals strongly hint at that.
ReplyDeleteJune 15th could be a bottom, most full moon this year were. Rally into july 4th long weekend (its a Monday), and then have some black swan shit up the place.
Hey Dark,
ReplyDeleteWatch them, they are sneaky buggers (Stealth QE). Like how did they give $600B to foreign banks, WTF?!