wow, steveo, i actually disagree with you on silver. we have at least a lower low to put in, imo, and then maybe a ride up for a bit. but we shall see. as always, nice charts!
first, i probably should have said a lower short term low, potentially around 3200 or 3300 on the continuous.
second, i'm a very simple guy, i like wave counting, i like fibs and trendlines and basic indicators. there are two daily GSI globex silver charts side by side here, one going back to the all-time high, the second zoomed in on the advance since december. http://screencast.com/t/zgHiP292late december marked the end of an abc down off the top in april/may. given the nature of the moon rocket up, i don't believe that first abc down was 'it'. (one of my favorite truisms: parabolic moves always end badly...http://screencast.com/t/j3Mol9X9dXe) but, given that we've completed what looks like a 5-wave advance since december, i think we have to complete a 2 or b down from here. that one-day wonder this past week seemed too easy and too shallow to be the complete down wave. the blue fib lines show that a normal pullback, 50%, would get us down to about 3200. even if we have a very shallow 2 or b, we still drop to just above 3300. fibs aren't magic to me, but they are general areas to keep an eye on. given the indicators i use here, everything is pointing down, which is bearish, and the macd is just crossing down.
the other crazy colored fib lines seem to support the idea that we've completed the first leg up since dec. we got right up to the 61.8% of the big c down leg and very near the 50 of the entire down move off the late april high.
it looks to me like we finished an abc up on thursday off the week's lows, then either 3 or 5 waves down from there.
(pardon going to a line chart, but the fly specks on the 1m march and april charts are a pain: http://screencast.com/t/3dspANlVb7)
the 60m indicators might need to come up a bit more, which could be accomplished overnight tonight...before this correction continues and we get down to that 3200-3300 level before heading up into at least mid-month.
http://screencast.com/t/x6WEGCGT
the 10, 50 and 200ma positions there look like they're pointing to more downside, too.
like i said, i'm a simple guy, so don't laugh at my simple analysis! lol of course, anything can happen and i could get all of this noodling shoved up my you-know-what, but i'm leaning to more downside in the short term future.
wow, steveo, i actually disagree with you on silver. we have at least a lower low to put in, imo, and then maybe a ride up for a bit. but we shall see. as always, nice charts!
ReplyDeleteYou got a chart for your silver more down theory?
ReplyDeletefirst, i probably should have said a lower short term low, potentially around 3200 or 3300 on the continuous.
ReplyDeletesecond, i'm a very simple guy, i like wave counting, i like fibs and trendlines and basic indicators. there are two daily GSI globex silver charts side by side here, one going back to the all-time high, the second zoomed in on the advance since december. http://screencast.com/t/zgHiP292late december marked the end of an abc down off the top in april/may. given the nature of the moon rocket up, i don't believe that first abc down was 'it'. (one of my favorite truisms: parabolic moves always end badly...http://screencast.com/t/j3Mol9X9dXe) but, given that we've completed what looks like a 5-wave advance since december, i think we have to complete a 2 or b down from here. that one-day wonder this past week seemed too easy and too shallow to be the complete down wave. the blue fib lines show that a normal pullback, 50%, would get us down to about 3200. even if we have a very shallow 2 or b, we still drop to just above 3300. fibs aren't magic to me, but they are general areas to keep an eye on. given the indicators i use here, everything is pointing down, which is bearish, and the macd is just crossing down.
the other crazy colored fib lines seem to support the idea that we've completed the first leg up since dec. we got right up to the 61.8% of the big c down leg and very near the 50 of the entire down move off the late april high.
it looks to me like we finished an abc up on thursday off the week's lows, then either 3 or 5 waves down from there.
(pardon going to a line chart, but the fly specks on the 1m march and april charts are a pain: http://screencast.com/t/3dspANlVb7)
the 60m indicators might need to come up a bit more, which could be accomplished overnight tonight...before this correction continues and we get down to that 3200-3300 level before heading up into at least mid-month.
http://screencast.com/t/x6WEGCGT
the 10, 50 and 200ma positions there look like they're pointing to more downside, too.
like i said, i'm a simple guy, so don't laugh at my simple analysis! lol of course, anything can happen and i could get all of this noodling shoved up my you-know-what, but i'm leaning to more downside in the short term future.