Monday, July 16, 2012

I got this whole post from TF metals, me and my historian friend started in 2005 with the "sure looks like the end of an empire" a few people thought we were nuts, and we knew most people weren't even ready to here that as the dance twirled on. Tainter's video lecture on "Collapse of Complex societies" - easy to listen, interesting and highly recommended. No easy ways out of the decline of complex society-either radically new cheaper energy source now or pillage (increasing the empire). Current synapse of his book from 1988 I recommended earlier: I put the video links in the right order, from 1 to 5, each about 14 minutes, very easy to understand/interesting to listen. Includes debasement of currency in ancient Rome before collapse and its today's analogies, but that is not the main point. I buy his explanation in diminishing returns and needs for subsidies (free lunch aka fossil fuels giving access to accumulated solar energy) to sustain increasingly complex societies and grow them economically: 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) I think in our fast connected global environment things are happening and will happen faster, including increase of complexity to maintain status quo and inability to carry the costs. I will put it in my chart forum so that these basic concepts are easy to find.


  1. the idea that the low-hanging fruit has already been picked.

  2.  That idea has merit, but without the rule of law being enforced, and producers being ripped off by lawyers and government, and without a constitution in place, I just don't see any mediocre future until a "great reset" of some sort happens.


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