Thursday, August 2, 2012

Long Bias, JCI HON look fugly though

I have had a long bias this last week or so, and that is sure not working so far.    HOG short is my only winner. 

Those hoping for a strong Fed "statement" of action to buoy markets were certainly disappointed.   At least for now.    Overall, the "wrong sectors" are leading advances, whereas in a "good advance" the Nasdaq and Russell would lead, they have been weak.   See chart at bottom for comparison of all 4.

My slant is upward, with the trepidation of establishing more longs after being whipped out of 4 positions with losses.     Indeed long is the "hard trade" here.  

Funny how after a few down days the mind can start seeing bearish patterns.  JCI and HON for instance.

JCI and HON, Johnson Controls and Honeywell  are my own "bellweathers" of overall economy.   In the great Keysian Debacle (2007,2008,2009) they both went into sharp downward sloping wedges before the ramp from hell.

Now they are both sporting bear, Johnson with a massive multi year head and shoulders, and Honeywell with a near term rising wedge whcih is bearish, and lots of air beneath. 

Other stuff I have says a long trade is good probability, and I still conspiracize that  after stop raids and busting the bubble of the big Ben hopefuls, that it would be perfect time to ramp up.

My other custom indicators, FF, VOS, various put calls, and derivatives and ratios thereof, are not calling for much in particular, they don't fire signals that often, but when they do, moves can be large.

Dow Transports looks like it is about to fall off a cliff, but it is also at support, in the new HAL 20000 age that we trade in, that probably means a false break on the support prior to ramp, if such occurs.   Doesn't Barry want his job back anyway? 

Got whipped out of 4 positions today, realized losses, GSVC was within pennies of low of day and immediate recovery, very annoying, especially when that is happening at 3:30 AM Hawaii time, and I just can't be up  for the market. 


  1. 2008 lows here we come!

    Nice H&S analysis on JCI Steveo.

  2.  Thanks, that's one of the nicest and longest timewise that I have seen.   "stimulus" is like a crack for  while but the crash part is even worse (well from what I have hears)


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