This may have more applicability now than ever, worth a read
Major Axiom 5 :- On Patterns - The Emperor Axiom
Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
Do not look for order where order does
not exist. Do not overlook the large role chance takes in any
speculation. Study information in whatever speculative medium to improve
chances and take your best shot. Stay light on your feet ready to jump
this way or that. You are dealing with chaos, as long as you are alert
to that fact you can keep yourself from getting hurt.
Internal Monolog goes:
“OK. I’ve done my homework as well as I
know how. I think this bet can pay off for me. But since I cannot see or
control all the random events that will affect what happens to my
money. I know the chance of me being wrong is large. Therefore I will
stay light on my feet, ready to jump this way or that when whatever is
going to happen happens."
Minor Axiom V
Beware the historians trap.
The Historian’s trap is a particular kind
of orderly illusion. It is based on the age-old but entirely
unwarranted belief that history repeats itself. People who hold this
belief - which is to say perhaps ninety-nine out of every hundred people
on earth - believe as a corollary proposition that the orderly
repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain
situations.... Don’t fall into this trap. It is true that history
repeats itself sometimes, but most often it doesn’t, and in any case it
never does so in a reliable enough way that you can prudently bet money
Minor Axiom Vl
Beware the Chartist’s illusion.
Minor Axiom Vll
Beware the correlation and causality delusions.
Minor Axiom Vlll
Beware the Gambler’s Fallacy. ( This is my lucky day.)