Sunday, September 6, 2009

Chart of Charts - 20 Currencies against the USD

Here is the summary...I reviewed charts in 4 time frames and did a quick jot down of bullish or bearish for daytrading, intermediate (weeks), long term (months) for 22 currency pairs.

Day trade, 7 or 8 bearish for dollar, 6 or 7 bullish for dollar

Intermediate, 7 bear, 8 Bull

Long term, 4 bear, 11 bull.

Observation--Looks like 5 of the 22 are pretty much just pegged to the dollar. And 2 of those have just recently (Nov 08, June 09) become pegged. See the attached chicken scratch scan.

Analysis---investors aren't ready to fly to the dollar until something seriously scares them, and this might take months yet. Or it could be tomorrow. ES hit its lowest target of mine in Sunday night futures.

One theory---everyone and his brother are convinced that the market is going to tip it's hand very soon, at the latest, this week. What if ol' Mr. Market just oscillates around 1000 SPY for say a month or two? Think of all that option premium the market makers would suck out of the market.

Disclosure...Positioned very short based on low level of bullish breakouts on equities charts, however I will say, this review of the currencies will increase my willingness to cover some short positions early this week, since any near term pop in the USD is not clear at all. In fact, I would suspect one massive sell off in the USD to shake out the weak bulls, and then a run for the money....check UUP to bet this one.



    Not the kind of thing you want to see if you are bullish AUD. And AUD = risk.

  2. That one is reversed on my chart. I have converted all to being bullish on USD or bearish on USD. So for the AUD/USD currency pair, I am bullish on USD and thus bearish on AUD.

    Commodities are going to get a whoopin'


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