Thursday, September 15, 2011

Played my methods today and got my ass handed to me

Anything can happen.

I waited patiently for "Kee" resistance--waiting for the market to move to it, very slowly, layin gin wait.   Then it was hit, and went short NQ futures.  The small up and down ramps eventually invalidated this call (after some stop outs, chewing away a hundred or $200 each time).

Finally, toward the end of day, the tick fade method showed a double top over 1000 tick, a good short signal, took it even though I had been burned on the previous diligent method I was following.   

And got burned again.  

Overall, my thoughts were that we have a general uptrend, based on Obama Dollars, seasonality, high put/call.  

Well, so be it.   Went against my medium term perspective, followed 2 solid trade methods that said short, and although for a short day trade, probability was on my side---got my ass handed to me.

Both methods, Kee resistance and Tick Fade are invalid after hours.   Plus my view was that the puts had been hammered enough, and there would be a slough off into expiry. Didn't happen.  

Actually, I do believe that most index options are settled on Friday morning, based on Thursday close.

Here I sit with 3 futures short.    Not huge, but significant.   

Good rule of thumb...when a day trade becomes a swing trade, bad sign.   When that swing trade becomes an "investment", very bad sign.  

My habit has been to ignore trading on Expiry day, tomorrow.   I will need to either trade, or set a stop and limits based on some technical level and call it a "Box of Chocolates" up tomorrow and see what is in the box.

I am going to assume that the end of day ramp was to facilitate really screwing the put holders for index puts, and that the indices will drop into  tomorrow.     Holding 3 short from 2283.75 NQ, for better or worse it is my call, 100% my responsibility.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Insightful and Useful Comment!