Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Repeat of a Dash, and Terrible "Advice" from a so called advisor

This from July 7th, 2011, I thought it worth reviewing.


What this blog was for

I started this to record my own thoughts and charts and trade rational.

Also to document links to good sites, and other newsworthy stuff.

I always liked reading "A Dash of Insight", it was 1 of 2 of my "Bull all the time" blogs. They never once saw the crisis coming, and they never sold off during the crisis.

Now they state:
Investment Conclusion

Please note that my forecast is much more specific than the other sources.

How you trade the debt ceiling debate depends upon your time frame. If you agree with me that this will play out over the next two weeks, there might be a better buying opportunity.

Having said this, most investors (and many managers) have trouble chasing stocks after a big rebound. My own approach with recent new accounts has been to establish partial positions. There may be a further decline, but it is better to get started than to be caught completely flat-footed. I continue to believe that this is a good time to invest for those with a time horizon of a year or more.

How agile are you?

So he is basically calling a "bottom" here, he says, it might get a little worse, but since you guys are bad traders, we know you won't buy in once it starts going up --therefore buy in now before it starts going down (and then up, in the perfect world).

They rarely take a stand, they are taking one now.   Don't be caught flat footed.

What say you? Go all in long?   Leveraged 200%?   You would give poor Pretcher a heart attack!

I am going to hit them a bit the story, they are setting up the debt ceiling issue as the Straw Man, and that if they Straw man can be knocked down, that all problems are solved, and that the market can forge ahead  again for years.  

How weak is this?   Certainly to not recognize that there are other problems of significance is beyond foolhardy.   There is a chance the market keeps moving up for a year or 2.   Like 25%

There is also a chance the market drops 80% similar to the first great depression, say 25%.

That leaves a 50% chance of "just plain sucking" dealing with reality of 30 years of too easy of money.    Heck even if the market goes up, that doesn't mean diddly to the average business owner or worker.  Unless you go "all in" long.

Business leaders are talking to Republicans.  And everyone knows this.  Wall Street pros are taking this in stride.  The average investor is the victim.
Well time will tell, but calling investors victims, because they are being caught flat footed (not all in), is an amazing thing to say.    

I kind of agree....this debt ceiling thing is a bunch of bull, it matters not.   We all KNOW that the US is already defaulting on it's debt by the greatest monetary expansion in history.    WE KNOW IT.  After the last crisis, our country has learned less than nothing.   Why less than nothing?   Because some of the wrong things to "know" have been reinforced.   Housing Giants are back, leveraged house loans are back, and people are forgetting that anything happened.  "A larger trial will be prepared".    Not sure about that, but I am sure that a larger trial will be needed to knock people upside the head enough to realize that serious changes in behavior are needed for a sustainable future going forward.   Any way that is not sustainable, will be unsustainable.

1 comment:

Insightful and Useful Comment!