Tuesday, September 1, 2009

Mercury Retrograde


Here is more than a little insight....here is the inner working of my feeble little pattern recongnition brain......

I dont like current month options, hardly even except for truly day trading which I dont have time for right now. Theta burn sucks, I like selling this month option, calls or covered calls, or vertical spreads....

Oct puts could pay nicely, but spend some money and get Mar, Apr, Jan 2011--then study the waves and fundamentals enough to sit on your hands as Mr market tries to scare you out of your postition.

This was originally posted last week---Please review it.

OK game plan from 5000 feet. Next week is a pre-holiday week, end of the summer for many people. Some of the big boys will be gone, lighter volume, easier to push the tape.

Because HBB games EWI I expect a drop on Monday AM, decent gap down, 1%...this encourages bears to sell but doesnt scare out the new bulls quite yet. Then market moves down in waves for 2 days...now the bears are piling in...pissed that they missed part of the move. Now on light volume, HBB paint the tape higher, to new highs...shaking out the bears and puffing up the bulls who knew buy and hold and buy the dip would work.

Asia tanks on Sunday, Sep 6th, but US can't do diddly, markets are closed--but everyone can talk about it at the Monday Labor day holiday over a nice BBQ with corn on the cob, anxious that they can't do anything because the market is closed. They enter stop loss order right under their long positions, but the market gaps down pretty big like 3 or 4 percent, and they are forced to sell into an abyss.

Also, you don't have to believe, but its always good policy to back up your computer and other data. Do so now, before Mercury retrograde also hits on the 6th. My stalwart computer blew up last retrograde. And communications of all sorts get challenging during the Mercury retrograde period.


I'll have stink puts ready to buy on that final pop later half of next week, but already picked up some nice stink puts today, all 2010 expiry. Get your tickers ready. And review my boatloads. Many of these "weak stocks" that have shown surprising strength are exactly that...a sentiment extreme in which non-pro "investors" get attractive to risky assets, like going to Vegas (like Fujisan...except that she is the opposite of retail, one of the best).


  1. Wow, stock market commentary and and astral cycles all in one blog - Where else I ask you?

    The market logic and progression make sense. The wild-card is manipulation. How badly do deep pockets want to keep pushing the tape. Throwing down 100,000 ES contracts at a time do have their intended effect. Thanks for the great blog.

  2. And mercury rules short term transportation too...so be careful of accidents and breakdowns!

  3. is it two more down days that you expect after Monday's down day--meaning Wed down again??? or was today enough before the light run up into friday----Wells Fargo news after the close regarding paying the tarp back without diluting existing shareholders was interesting--tomororw you have ADP number and the oil inventory (which they ran the market on last week) -also you have the B.S. unemployment number Friday--- it seems a lot of shorts may run to cover out of fear of getting screwed again by the powers that be into that employment number and the long wknd---
    Question: with the substantial drop today would you still expect a new high into Friday--which looks to be at least 40 + S&P points---
    Thanks in advance


Insightful and Useful Comment!